No. 01
Strategic foresight
Long-horizon probabilistic outlooks for principals navigating regulatory, geopolitical, and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Calibrated Foresight / Decision-Grade Intelligence
Practical Predictions
- Established
- 2026 — Independent practice
- Sectors
- Government, Climate, Consulting
- Method
- Bayesian, calibrated, sourced
- Domain
- European institutions
§ I — What we do
Three disciplines, one standard of evidence.
No. 02
Scenario modelling
Structured scenarios with quantified likelihoods, used to stress-test policy positions and investment theses.
No. 03
Decision briefings
Concise, defensible written reports — calibrated, sourced, and addressed to the people who actually decide.
§ II — Approach / methodology
Confidence is earned by accounting for what we do not know.
Our work begins with priors drawn from the historical record and the analytical literature, then updates them against current signal. Each conclusion is paired with the assumptions it depends on and the conditions under which it would be revised. The result is intended to be useful at the moment of decision, not after it.
- i.
Calibrated
Every forecast carries an explicit probability, tracked against outcomes over time.
- ii.
Sourced
Reasoning, data, and prior assumptions are written down — auditable, not asserted.
- iii.
Bayesian
Beliefs update as evidence arrives; we publish the revisions, not only the conclusions.
- iv.
Restrained
We forecast what can be forecast, and say so plainly when something cannot.
§ III — Sectors served
Where calibrated forecasting changes the decision.
G.
Government
Foresight and scenario work for ministries, regulators, and policy units operating under public scrutiny.
C.
Climate
Physical and transition risk forecasting for institutions whose mandates extend across multiple decades.
K.
Consulting
White-label analytical capacity for senior advisory firms supporting their most demanding engagements.
§ IV — Selected reports
Recent publications
- 001Climate
Physical risk re-pricing across European sovereign debt markets
Apr 2026 - 002Government
Probabilistic outlook for EU enlargement decisions through 2030
Feb 2026 - 003Consulting
Demand scenarios for critical minerals under transition friction
Dec 2025 - 004Climate
Calibrating insurer exposure to compound climate events
Oct 2025
V — Enquiries